Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia
May 2007
World Economic and Financial Surveys
Strong economic performance across the Middle East and Central Asia is examined against the background of high prices for energy and other commodities. Common economic trends are presented, while prospects and policies are reviewed for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating specific regional topics, such as financial sector reforms and integration in Maghreb countries; economic developments in oil-exporting countries in response to changes in petroleum prices; and the growth boom in the Caucasus and Central Asia. |
Contents
| Recent Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects | ||
| Highlights Background | ||
| Recent Economic Developments | ||
| Economic Outlook | ||
| World economic outlook | ||
| Outlook for the region | ||
| Policy Issues | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 1. | What is Behind the Growth Boom in the Caucasus and Central Asia? | |
| 2. | Paradox of Depreciating Real Effective Exchange Rates in GCC Countries | |
| 3. | Islamic Bonds | |
| 4. | Lebanon—Recovery from Conflict | |
| 5. | The Fund's Role in Post-Conflict Countries in MCD | |
| 6. | Oil Income in the Middle East and Central Asia—An Update | |
| 7. | Financial Sector Reforms and Financial Integration in Maghreb Countries | |
| Text Figures | ||
| 1. | Global Real GDP Growth | |
| 2. | Real GDP Growth in MCD | |
| 3. | External Current Account Balance | |
| 4. | Non-Oil Commodity Prices | |
| 5. | Gross Official Reserves | |
| 6. | Central Government Fiscal Balance | |
| 7. | Total Government Debt | |
| 8. | Counterparts to Money Supply | |
| 9. | Credit to the Private Sector | |
| 10. | Consumer Price Index | |
| 11. | Nominal Effective Exchange Rates | |
| 12. | Real Effective Exchange Rates | |
| 13. | Selected MCD Countries Stock Market Indices | |
| 14. | Global Outlook | |
| 15. | Expected Brent Crude Oil Prices | |
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| Data and Conventions | ||
| Tables | ||
| 1. | Real GDP Growth | |
| 2. | Nominal Gross Domestic Product | |
| 3. | Hydrocarbon and Non-hydrocarbon Real Growth for Oil Exporters | |
| 4. | Crude Oil Production and Exports | |
| 5. | Consumer Price Index | |
| 6. | Broad Money | |
| 7. | Central Government Fiscal Balance | |
| 8. | Central Government Total Revenue Excluding Grants | |
| 9. | Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance | |
| 10. | Central Government Non-Oil Revenue | |
| 11. | Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending | |
| 12. | Total Government Debt | |
| 13. | Export of Goods and Services | |
| 14. | Import of Goods and Services | |
| 15. | Current Account Balance (in billions of U.S. dollars) | |
| 16. | Current Account Balance (in percent of GDP) | |
| 17. | Real Effective Exchange Rates | |
| 18. | Gross Official Reserves | |
| 19. | Total Gross External Debt | |